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Luther Propst
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Envisioning the  future

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Growth forecast slightly less
By Dennis Webb, Post Independent Staff

May 6, 2006

Garfield County's population isn't expected to triple over the next quarter of a century after all.

It's only projected to double-and-a-half.

The state Demographer's Office has revised its estimate, partly in response to fast-rising housing costs in western Garfield County, said Randy Russell, a planner for the county. The county is now projected to grow to about 130,000 people by 2030, from about 50,000 now.

That's still a lot of growth, Russell said Friday during the State of the Valley Symposium at the Hotel Colorado in Glenwood Springs.

"We're trying to figure out where all these new people are going to park," Russell said.

The county now is expected to see 4.6 percent annual growth over the next five years, compared to a projection by the state last year of 7.6 percent growth. The state also previously had forecast that the county would reach 148,000 total residents by 2030.

In an interview, Russell said last year's population projections were based in part on the assumption that there would be pent-up demand for new housing in the region as the country came out of the recession. But he said it's now looking as if the growth in places such as Eagle County will be a little more moderate.

Growth in Eagle and Pitkin counties serves as a driver for Garfield County growth. Housing is more affordable here, providing a place for much of the region's labor force to live.

But housing prices in Garfield County are rising, particularly in the western half of the county. Although prices there are still cheaper than in eastern Garfield County, they are going up at a faster pace, in part because of the boom in natural gas development from Silt to Parachute.

Russell told participants in Friday's symposium that some houses in Rifle are selling by word of mouth before even being listed for sale.

"It's gone sort of nutso," he said.

Price increases in western Garfield County could do more than just slow growth. They also could further reduce the affordable housing role Garfield County has played.

"We've been the regional affordable housing bank for the whole area and I think it's safe to say that that's drying up now," he said.

As wealthy, retired baby boomers continue to move to the county, Russell worries where the middle-class work force will live.

"The boomers are coming our way. I think we're only seeing the leading edge of that," he said.

Russell said no one is building rental properties, and some communities don't want them. That raises the specter of more homes being built outside incorporated towns and cities to meet the demand of a growing population.

"How much of that new growth do you really want in unincorporated Garfield County?" Russell asked.


Contact Dennis Webb: 945-8515, ext. 516

dwebb@postindependent.com
 

By Dennis Webb, Post Independent Staff
May 7, 2006

Western author Wallace Stegner wrote about the goal of creating a society to match the scenery of the region.

To get there, the West will have to formulate a vision to match its views, an expert in regional planning and conservation told a Glenwood Springs audience Friday.

"We need to articulate a broad vision, a bold vision for a more sustainable, more benign society," Luther Propst of the Sonoran Institute said at the State of the Valley Symposium, presented by Healthy Mountain Communities at the Hotel Colorado.

Propst is executive director of the nonprofit institute, which he said promotes decisions that respect the land and its people. It's based in Arizona, but recently opened a satellite office in Grand Junction.

The West has a unique competitive advantage in the global economy, Propst said. Besides its economic opportunities, it offers its residents easy access to vast amounts of public lands where they can find recreation and solitude.

The result has been a population boom that is expected to continue. Under one estimate, 40 million more people will live in the intermountain West by 2040, and Colorado's population will grow to 7.1 million then, from 4.7 million now.

"The question is how do we accommodate those people while still protecting what we all value about the West," Propst said.

That growth is threatening the quality of life on which the Western economy now depends, he said.

"The changes are occurring faster than the structures for dealing with them," he said.

Propst said that to achieve Stegner's goal, "we have to tap into the proclivity of the West for thinking big, the proclivity of America for thinking big."

Negative thinking won't cut it, he said.

Among other attributes, such a society would be less reliant on cars, would protect landscapes and watersheds, and would have well-planned communities with attainably priced housing, he said.

Examples of that big vision already can be found around the West, Propst said. Among them: